A Prospective Study to Estimate the Health Needs of the Population of the Wilaya of Setif Between 2019 and 2054 Based on Spectrum Demographic Software

Abstract

Objectives: This study seeks to conduct future projections for the population of the wilaya of Setif in order to estimate their expected health requirements in terms of the number of doctors, nurses, health centers, hospitals, hospital beds and annual health expenditure. In this respect, determining the wilaya’s population size is essential, therefore, three scenarios have been elaborated to review the demographic phenomena that govern future population growth using Spectrum demographic software, from the base-year 2019 to the projection year 2054.   

Methods: This study adopted a quantitative foresight approach by employing a future foresight model to estimate anticipated health needs. Relevant demographic and health data were input into Spectrum demographic software, followed by the development of three foresight scenarios. The software enabled future projections of the population size in the Wilaya of Setif and the estimation of health needs through the horizon of the year 2054.

Results: The findings of the study, based on the three scenarios revealed an upward trend in the population size of the Wilaya of Setif by the year 2054. In parallel, the future projections indicated an increase in health care needs. Although the general trend was upward across all scenarios, the highest rates were recorded under the optimistic scenario, followed by the reference, and then the pessimistic scenario.

Conclusions: The quantitative estimates contribute to supporting future population and health planning, thereby enabling decision-makers to benefit from them effectively.